Population of suburban Houston Crosby could double with new development

On Monday night, Crosby ISD’s board approved a contract with population and survey analysts at College Station to provide another demographic study to guide them through what appears to be extraordinary growth at a time now. and on the horizon.

According to numbers projected by the district by developers who submitted their land use plans for the area, the next decade could provide the district with an influx of more than 7,000 new homes and more than 10,000 new students.

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A presentation to the board by Crosby ISD chief financial officer Yvonne Johnson showed the district’s last demographic study was completed in the fall of 2020, during a downturn due to the pandemic.

According to Johnson, the study included real estate developments, upcoming projects, analysis of current students such as their attendance area, grade level, and student projections based on three growth scenarios by demographers – low scenarios, moderate and high.

“Due to the growth we are currently seeing throughout the district, an updated demographic study is required to obtain updated projections,” she said.

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Compared numbers from the 2020 study to current enrollments show a slight increase in pre-kindergarten to kindergarten enrollment based on the low growth scenarios. The estimate for grades one through five was slightly lower than projections with 2,429 students versus a projected 2,555, and slightly lower than the projection of 1,583 for grades six through eight with a current population of 1,549. Both figures were still close to low growth targets, as were the projected number of 2,020 secondary students and current enrollment of 1,980.

Where the math gets sticky is that the high school, for example, was built for an enrollment of 1,800, making it 180 students over capacity. The sixth to eighth grade middle school is built for 1,500 students and now houses 49 overcapacity students.

The three elementary campuses were each built for 750 students with current enrollment for all three together of 2,429 students, approximately 179 students over capacity.

“To give you some context, and what we’re hearing from the developers, the communities of Crosby and Barrett Station are one of the few remaining places in Harris County that isn’t fully developed,” Johnson told reporters. council members.

“We have flat land, a lot of which is filled with grass farms. We are only 20 minutes from downtown Houston and FM 2100 is being expanded. So these three factors – available land, proximity to Houston, and wider thoroughfares – make Crosby and Barrett Station ideal choices for developers,” she explained.

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Johnson said construction timelines for each of the 11 proposed new developments in Crosby are optimistic and that with a slowing economy and higher interest rates, they could slow some growth.

“It will be a delicate balance between where we are, what we need to do and making decisions that are conservative but also realistic,” she warned board members and staff.

Rezoning for better capacity on each of the campuses is on the table and, with explosive growth, could happen often.

The district has approximately $86.5 million in funds from the 2017 bond that can still be used to build a new campus if needed. It would be difficult for the district to keep all of the promises made for the original bond since inflation has driven up material and labor costs.

Superintendent Paula Patterson suggests forming a community committee to provide input and help make decisions and prioritize spending of the remaining bond money, then look at the potential for a second bond to help address the issues. additional needs of the district if needed in the future.

Below is a list of the 11 new projected subdivisions in the district. Development names were not specified during Monday’s presentation.

New projected subdivisions in Crosby ISD:

*From November 2022

Properties #1 and #2

Number of houses: 50 houses currently under construction, 3,500 in total

Location: 1,000 acres at FM 1942 & Sralla; FM 2100 and FM 1942

Info: Construction underway now with first homes expected in 2023 and a completion date of 2033

Property #3

Number of households: 300 households

Location: S. Diamondhead near Sea Palms

Info: Construction underway now with completion summer 2026

Property #4

Number of homes: 86 homes

Location: S. Diamondhead and Port O’Call

Info: Construction begins in summer 2023 with completion in 2025

Property #5

Number of households: 252 households

Location: FM 2100 between N. Diamondhead and Foley Road

Info: Construction begins in summer 2023 and will end in summer 2027

Property #6

Number of homes: 60 homes

Location: Hare Road opposite the post office

Info: In progress

Property #7

Number of households: 823 households

Location: Runneburg and Bohemian Hall

Info: First batches available in Q2 2024; Second and third phases Q2 and Q4 2025

Property #8

Number of residences: 407 mobile homes

Location: North of Runneburg and Bohemian Hall

Info: Start of work at the end of 2023/beginning of 2024

Property #9 – Section One

Number of households: 124 households

Location: FM 2100 near N. Diamondhead

Info: Start of construction in the fall of 2022 with completion in the summer of 2025

Property #9 – Section Two

Number of households: 432 households

Location: FM 2100 near N. Diamondhead

Info: Construction starting in summer 2024 with completion in summer 2028

Property #10 – Section two and three

Number of households: 230 households

Location: Behind Crosby High School

Info: Already under construction with lots available in Q4 2023

Property #10 – Section 4

Number of households: 167 households

Location: Behind Crosby High School

Info: Future development

Property #11

Number of households: 500 households

Location: Indian Shores Road, near Lake Houston

Info: First phase 150 housing units ready by December 2023; second phase of 150 homes ready by December 2025

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